Our October forecast came in essence to the expectation of the crisis. We hoped to see its real manifestation closer to the beginning of the new year. Setting such time limits, we proceeded from the fact that statistical accounts are always one or two months late due to some understandable reasons and that does not let us assess what is going on real-time. All this is correct, however, economic subjects, and housewives should also be attributed to them, by no means always wait for officials reports of statistical services in order to take their decisions. They are able to react to information which is being spread via mass media channels as well as via channels of interpersonal communication (by means of rumors).
For the last two decades the Belarusian society has taken a determined step from the total shortage of the Soviet type into the market abundance. Quite large groups of citizens, who have something to lose as their well-being in many respects depends on credit resources, have appeared. As a rule, these are young, educated residents of big cities. They react rather badly to any negative economic information. They are exactly the people who are the first to form queues in banks trying to get rid of the currency whose “hardness” turned out to be under threat owing to this or that reason. Just as Gorky’s stormy petrel they warn about crisis approaching, and in October (especially in its third ten-day period) we could observe how they began to “flock”.
Their activity did not remain unnoticed by the authorities either. From this followed a series of public declarations and specific decisions aimed at prevention of panic among bank depositors. They managed to avoid panic in October; however, the reasons for financial instability are not eliminated. It is clear to many people today.
New time forms new threats. Today references of the head of state to the fact that “We defended our country during the years of war and after the collapse of the Soviet Union; obtained the possibility to be called an islet of stability and peace” do not look convincing any more. Surges of the world crisis cover “the islet” and we are in for observing and analyzing consequences of this process at least till the end of the next year.
As for other October forecasts, we should revert to the previous issue of the “Infofocus” and make an extensive quotation: “As far as October forecast is concerned, the month will pass under the badge of the last parliamentary elections. Relations between Belarus and the West will be built up according to the well-known formula of Trotsky “neither peace, nor war”. The parties will be looking for opportunities to strengthen mutual contacts within the framework of the “non-recognition” policy. The chances of harsh accusatory statements from the direction of both sides are minimal. The opposition will not condescend to an analysis of what has happened. All its activity will not go beyond making a list of infringements on the part of the authorities in the course of the elections, and beyond traditional mutual reproaches. However, the voice of the business-community, which grew stronger in September, we will certainly hear again. Life within the limits of the economic field will continue to pick up steam”.
How the mentioned above assumptions were realized in reality we have tried to show in the materials of the next issue of the “Infofocus”.

IISEPS executive board

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