We began our last forecast with an attempt to estimate the chances of the authorities to cope with the undertaken commitments on the GDP growth. It is clear that neither the primary 10%, nor the corrected 6% have anything to do with the reality; however the impression is that even a solitary per cent is not a bit closer to the reality either, and the matter here does not concern undisguised rigging.
Let us cite a couple of truisms from the "young economist's" course. GDP is added value. It is not measured in pieces (cubic meters, liters, etc.); nevertheless, under the conditions of dynamic economic development the "pieces' growth" correlates with the GDP growth quite well. However, a completely new reality is created under the conditions of a crisis, and any attempts to keep comparability of crisis indicators with the pre-crisis ones are meaningless and misleading.
Today any businessman can explain in hand-waving terms that the growth of "pieces" production may be accompanied not by the earnings and wages fund growth, but vice versa by their decrease. However, they are exactly the ones constituting the basis of the added value, i.e. of the GDP. And does the produce piled up in warehouses (in May - 94.9% of the average monthly scope) contain added value? From the point of view of "Belstat", it does, but there are other points of view, too.
Just as we had supposed, June brought progress at the western front-the International Monetary Fund decided to increase the volume of the stand-by credit program by $ 1 bln up to $ 2.52 bln on June, 29 and already on July, 2 $ 600 mln arrived in the National bank ($ 679.2 mln is expected altogether). To all appearances, the problem will not limit itself to the IMF alone. Minister of finance A. Kharkovets informed the journalists on June, 24 that Belarus had made a request to the European Union for financial aid. Consideration of the request is the matter of the nearest future, and there is some hope for a positive decision.
It did not come to the Russian $ 500 mln, but a certain advance began to show at the eastern credit front, too. Let us quote the words of Russian Minister of finance A. Kudrin said on June, 1 at the briefing in Moscow: "Russia does not refuse to grant Belarus another tranche of the loan equaling $ 500 mln, but we expect effective actions of the Belarusian government".
On the other hand, no progress occurred in the question of Belarus' recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia independence. To all appearances, the irresistible force has met the immovable object. Many words have been said, the majority of them should not have been, though; but the recognition question is driven away to the periphery of the public consciousness, and will remain there in the medium-term prospect.

IISEPS executive board

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