E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 6, 2011 - ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)
Content:
Introduction
1. Basic trends of June
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Between "the majority" and "the minority"
3.2. An anti-crisis plan in the resolution format
4. Economics
4.1. Positive dynamics not so vividly expressed
4.2. What goes to "minus" for Russians, is "to plus" for Belarusians
4.3. A bicycle for ˆ 100,000
5. Finances
5.1. Happiness is when people understand you
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for July
8. From the IISEPS desktop
Introduction:
Dear readers!
IISEPS' June poll has fully proved our forecast as concerns the reaction of Belarusians to the worsening of the living standard. The social indices characterizing the community's well-being have collapsed. Moreover, the Financial Standing Index showed the absolute minimum, i.e. minus 72. In June only 2% of respondents noted the improvement of their financial standing, whereas 74% pointed out to the worsening. The main responsibility for the worsening of their financial standing was imposed by the "cool-headed" Belarusians onto A. Lukashenko personally. The electoral rating of Batjka has not yet fallen lower than the historic 26.2%, but things are likely to go this way. Confer: 42.9% in March, 29.3% in June. In three months, the reduction made up 13.6 percentage points, and over six months past the presidential elections, 23.7 points. Therefore, our May forecast as regards possible overriding of the minimum record this year has not lost its relevance.
All the above said is true for the trust rating of the governmental mass media as well. This rating has specific, but similar dynamics: December - 52.9%, March - 43.4%, June - 39.2%. Moreover, the negative rating in June made up 52.6%, which means that more than a half of Belarusians today do not trust the information monopolized by "the boob tube". A similar trend was observed in the end of the notorious stagnation years under the leadership of "Dear Leonid Ilyich". The Communist Party enjoyed then an absolute monopoly for mass media, but that monopoly was unable to secure the comrades against the loss of trust any more.
The gestures towards IMF continued in June, but those were rather shy. The growth of export against the falling of import determined by the devaluation, most obviously, reconciled a little the creators of the hand-made crisis. While the society's fear has been escalating during the last months, on the upper floors of the "top-down command structure" they seem to have decided that the danger is over and we are out of the wood. The persisting level of repressions against the political opponents only drives us closer to this conclusion.
Our forecast concerning the inability of the government to arrive at "the balanced rouble rate based on the supply and demand, cleared of the speculative and devaluation expectations" has proved true. The devaluation expectations have not resolved. Promises readily given in early June as to the stabilization of the exchange market within 10-14 days did not prove true, and closer to the end of the month, the nearest term proclaimed was postponed to as far as the year-end.
IISEPS executive board
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