IISEPS — Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Politycal Studies

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 4, 2012 - ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)

Content:

Introduction
1. Basic trends of April
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
     3.1. High-ranking privatization without high-ranking functionaries
     3.2. In search of one's place in Europe
4. Economics
     4.1. From the "Greek" disease to the Spanish one
     4.2. Dreams and sounds
     4.3. Will modern sheep save Belarusian economy?
5. Finances
     5.1. Laughter in the audience by and without reason
6. Our forecast for May
7. From the IISEPS desktop

Introduction: Dear readers!

Our forecast concerning the annual president's message did not come true. The message planned for April 19 did not take place. Nothing is known about its new date so far. We can only guess the reasons for postponement; however, we share the opinion of the analysts who connect postponing the massage with the uncertainty established at the western "front". The peak of the conflict has been undoubtedly passed and return of some European ambassadors testifies to it. On the other hand, a concrete way of returning to the initial (pre-crisis) point is not within view so far. Taking into account the role which the EU countries play in the economy of Belarus, A. Lukashenko decided to follow the principle of Hippocrates "First, do no harm!" and postponed his speech while the "road map" was being elaborated.
At the end of April European ambassadors began to return to Minsk. Contrary to A. Lukashenko's statement, it did not come to considering "each ambassador" personally. In Karl Marx, 38 they still do not want to understand that in the modern world intergovernmental relations are built not on personal sympathy or antipathy, but on the basis of universal rules and norms. The experience of constructing the Union state and other Custom Unions and Common Free Market Zones is inapplicable in the western direction. Today such archaisms strike roots with difficulties even in the CU and the CFMZ.
Just as we had surmised, in April A. Lukashenko began releasing political prisoners. However, as the question is internal in the first place, it is solved solely on a case-by-case basis. Only two people were released - A. Sannikov and D. Bondarenko, i.e. those politicians who had written petitions for pardon. It is not ruled out that the president's message was postponed owing to such limited "mercy".
"Wars in the air" have also exhausted their resource. In full conformity with our forecast, Moscow pressurized Minsk into it. On April 5 "Belavia" received a notification that beginning with April 13 the permission for operating flights to the regions of the Russian Federation received before would be recalled. In reply the Belarusian air carrier had to agree to the initial request of the Russian party (5 flights from each country). That was exactly the parity Russia had been trying to obtain.

IISEPS executive board

Complete version see Here »»