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   IISEPS Bulletins
E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 6, 2013 - ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)

Content:

Introduction
1. Basic trends of June
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
     3.1. Historical and modern constituents of the mindset
     3.2. Well defined features of criminal organizations
4. Economics
     4.1. Debts butter no parsnips
     4.2. Will the weak ruble ginger Russian economy?
     4.3. The principle is like this: to solve tasks swiftly, help and compel
5. Finances
     5.1. Reading the currency exchange rate
6. Our forecast for July
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Introduction:

Dear readers!

The term for preparing an estimate draft specifying economic growth indicators for 2013 is "before July 9", according to governmental decree N 348. No official statements or data leaks concerning readiness of the government to face reality were reported as of the time of the "Infofocus" preparation. As for the forecast for 2014, according to unofficial information, strategists of the Belarusian economy decided to be saintlier than the Pope himself, i.e. to overtake China with regard to the growth rate. As reported by Naviny.by, the prepared forecast concept for 2014 presupposes the GDP growth by 9.6%. Let us illustrate the adequateness extent of the government by Prime Minister M. Myasnikovich's statement made at the meeting of the Council of Ministers: "I am asking you not to waste your time on arguing that the assignments and tasks will be hard to accomplish. Yes, it is difficult, hard, but it is necessary. It should be done not for the sake of a report figures, but for the sake of developing the economy which secures prosperity of our country and its citizens". Here one cannot but remember Father Fiodor from "12 Chairs": "Not for the love of lucre, but only by the will of my wife who has sent me!"
Not for the love of lucre, but solely for the sake of justice it is also necessary to quote chairwoman of the National Bank N. Ermakova: "Perhaps, we will not reach the 8.5% planned for this year. However, it is not so important; stability is important, then everybody will work". Contrary to our forecast, no supreme respond to the statement of the country's main banker followed, and it remained unnoticed against the background of the official optimism.
Optimism is peculiar not only to the Belarusian government, but to society as a whole. Our supposition that "electoral negative" would outweigh the general growth in the population's income did not come true. A. Lukashenko's electoral rating grew up by 3.9 points within the second quarter and made up 37.3%. This is the ceiling value since March, 2011. All that is left to do is to use the help of Wikipedia: "Optimism (from Latin Optimus - "the best") is an outlook on life from a positive point of view, confidence in a better future. Optimism asserts that the world is wonderful, there is a way out from any situation, everything will be fine, and all people are in general good".
May statistics confirmed the considerable decrease in consumption of "male" goods in Belarus: hard liquor and engine fuel. No, Belarusians have not become "couch potatoes". For the first six months of 2013 the "Belavia" company has carried 643.723 passengers, which is 26.8% more than during the same period last year. The population's income is actually growing, and this is not a Belstat fable. That is why the national air carrier has to open new charter flights: Kos, Araxos, Palma de Mallorca, Tivat, Pula...

IISEPS executive board

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