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IISEPS Bulletins |
E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 9, 2013 - ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian) Content: Introduction 1. Basic trends of September 2. Chronicle of key events 3. Politics 3.1. Politics as a business and business as a politics 4. Economics 4.1. The ghost of Karl Marx haunting the world 4.2. Investments within the country not compensated 4.3. "Such a country, in such a place, with such a people..." 5. Finances 5.1. A forecast from a man who had never made a mistake 6. Our forecast for October 7. From the IISEPS desktop Introduction: Dear readers! The conflict triggered by the arrest of Uralkali's general director V. Baumgertner surprisingly quickly turned into a smoldering stage. It never got up to the top officials' level. The conflict began with a monologue of A. Lukashenko, and this monologue developed incrementally during almost all of September. The Kremlin and Russian President Vladimir Putin personally did not turn it into a dialogue. Assuming in our forecast minimal chances for a favorable outcome of the conflict for the Belarusian head of state, we were confident that the conflict from the level "Belarusian state - Russian oligarch" would reach up to the level "Belarusian state - Russian state", but we were wrong. Something which seemed to be the Russian state due to a number of formal criteria, turned out to be something different. We have taken for the state a situational union of pro-government groups preoccupied with permanent redistribution of assets, and therefore the conflict of A. Lukashenko with the principal owner of Uralkali was seen in Moscow as a strengthening of certain groups at the expense of others. IISEPS executive board Complete version see Here »» |
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