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   IISEPS Bulletins
E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 7, 2014 - ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)

Content:

Introduction
1. Basic trends of July
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
     3.1. Non-market economy surrounded by the market
     3.2. "Stuff has to bear corresponding responsibility"
4. Economics
     4.1. European business circles turn away from Russia
     4.2. Consumer credits don't push demand anymore
     4.3. Disbalance in economy continues to grow
5. Finances
     5.1. Inflation is coming
6. Our forecast for August
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Introduction:

Dear readers!

Russian President V. Putin, addressing the Security Council on July 22, made an unexpected statement: "Russia is fortunately not a member of any alliance. This is also a guarantee of our sovereignty. Any nation that is part of an alliance gives up part of its sovereignty". But what about the CSTO? What about the Union State? It turns out that Russia doesn't consider the CSTO as an alliance. Accordingly, while planning and carrying out foreign policies, Russia "is not intending on limiting its freedom of action in the interests of the allies" (F. Lukyanov, Russian politologist).
In our forecast for July we've noted that orientation of Russian foreign policy on confrontation with the West, which is carried out without any co-ordination with Russia's allies, turned out to be another source of uncertainty for A. Lukashenko. And uncertainties, generated from the outside, pose a serious threat to the Belarusian stability, while there are no internal threats as for today. Society will surely go through the wrecking of social commitments, solemnly made on the IV All Belarusian People's Assembly. There are no doubts about it.
In July Belarus and Ukraine were on the edge of a trade war: on the 16th of June Ukraine introduced protective duties for a wide range of Belarusian goods in response to the Belarusian measures of licensing Ukrainian import. Belarus had to backpedal and cancelled licensing of certain goods imported from the CIS with the proviso that there should be no limitations on Belarusian goods in these countries.
Thus the policy of "threatening statements that come to nothing", which we mentioned in the forecast for July, was successfully fulfilled in the relations with Ukraine. Another example of this policy is the meeting on the enhancement of legislation on control of corruption. It resulted in the head of state's instruction to prepare a single legislative act on control of corruption, i.e. virtually there was no result.

IISEPS executive board

Complete version see Here »»

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