IISEPS — Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Politycal Studies

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 9, 2015 - ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)

Content:

Introduction
1. Basic trends of September
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
     3.1. Vote (correctly) or you will lose
     3.2. Belarusian stability doesn't include development
4. Economics
     4.1. Strong dollar is no good for developing countries
     4.2. Market has no bottom
     4.3. Problems of the most transit country
5. Finances
     5.1. People as a pure currency buyer
6. Our forecast for October
7. From the IISEPS desktop

Introduction: Dear readers!

A. Lukashenko didn't have courage to organize All-Belarusian People's Assembly. He is a politician who prefers to react to life, and life today is in such state that it's better not to remember the social obligations of the government. In August Natalia Eismont, the spokesperson for A. Lukashenko, assured that "All-Belarusian Assembly will happen, and it's decided". Carrying it out after the elections would be kind of a know how. It's hard to believe in it. To maintain stability in the country A. Lukashenko should not deliver communiqu?s (there is nothing to report), but pray. And he did this on October 2 on the steps of the Church of All Saints, surrounded by the teachers of Belarusians schools, who were ordered to be present.
Our forecast on the dynamics of A. Lukashenko's electoral rating didn't come true. Amid the further decrease of financial state index (from -28.2 in June down to -32.7 in September) and increase of the share of respondents, who agree that there is an economic crisis in Belarus (from 72% in June up to 75.1% in September), electoral rating of the head of state gained 7.1 points (from 38.6% up to 45.7%) over the third quarter. Refusal to carry out a traditional electoral campaign in favor of a mass scare-mongering of people by a possible loss of stability when "the globe is cracking with of bloody conflicts" turned out to be efficient. Thanks to Russian propaganda which has kept 60% of Belarusians in a state of affectation for a year and a half.
In September the "diplomacy of smiles" in relation to the West kept going just as we were supposing it. Let us note the working visit of PACE delegation which visited Belarus on September 8-9.
Balance of pure currency purchase was positive in August. Purchase of cash currency jumped by 43.3% at once and mounted to $ 698.5 billion. The volume of selling dropped by 3.5% comparatively to July ($ 574.7 billion). It's highly probable that the new electoral strategy of the power made an input in the changing of the currency trend. During Soviet years public talks about aggravation of international situation always provoked people to buy salt, matches and canned goods. Times have changed. Traditional "shelter goods" have been replaced by euro and dollars.

IISEPS executive board

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